Robotics Impact

For years, industrial robots have enabled the automation of simple tasks. So far, this has not led to higher unemployment, but the argument is that this is about to change.

The resulting extra prosperity will therefore accrue only to a few: the owners and managers of (large) companies. Initially, the gap between rich and poor will widen further. Lower-skilled workers will be the first to lose their jobs, and no replacements will emerge for these roles. In the Netherlands, they will fall back on the unemployment safety net and social assistance. In other countries, like the USA, this will lead to severe poverty much faster. It is therefore easy to imagine this causing immense dissatisfaction and perhaps even revolutions. Hopefully, this will only be a transitional period during which policymakers make adjustments so that everyone can benefit from increased prosperity. Developing and implementing effective policy is crucial to shaping this transition.

But ultimately, this development cannot be stopped, simply because it is possible and because immense money and power can be gained through AI and robotization.

Wealth Redistribution

When artificial intelligence eventually forces even highly educated individuals into unemployment, the government will be compelled to intervene. This can be done by redistributing wealth between the (by then) super-rich and the unemployed. Since national governments will no longer have sufficient influence over multinationals, this requires cooperation. Let's assume the positive outcome, where this is eventually achieved. We will then live with great freedom, leisure time, and prosperity until the moment the last job is replaced by smarter robots. At or just before that moment, the economy as we know it will disappear, and everything will be free. Robots will produce everything, including the extraction of raw materials, and because they demand no compensation, they will do so cost-free, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Consequently, the prices of goods and services will continue to drop until they eventually reach zero.

What Next?

The economy will have vanished; being rich will no longer serve any purpose because everything is free.

Will a shadow economy emerge, similar to the current divide between the underworld and the upper world, or will we try to distinguish ourselves in other ways? I don't know the answer right now, but what I do know is that the scenario described above is realistic, and we must prepare for both the period leading up to the disappearance of the economy and the period that follows.

However, if we handle it correctly, we can achieve exactly what we have always wanted: more leisure time and sufficient income to lead a fulfilling and enjoyable life. I believe this prospect makes it worthwhile to continue investing in innovation.